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Yesterday, the stock market already showed signs of a decline, which led to a surge in selling pressure today, triggering the first significant drop in the A-share market after the long holiday. This also caused the Shanghai Composite Index to break through the support levels of 3,500 points and 3,400 points, currently confirming the support level at 3,300 points.
However, this sharp decline was not due to a collective adjustment in the high dividend sector but rather a strong selling pressure risk that emerged in many sectors after their previous significant increases, which is why the stock market no longer showed the continued strong upward climb with a gap-up opening.
From this perspective, today is a good time for new investors to enter the market. The decline in the three major stock indices will also make many funds hesitant, increasing the number of investors who are not firm in their bullish outlook on the bull market, allowing institutional investors to pick up cheap chips.
Will the stock market soar or continue to plummet tomorrow?
There's no need to wait for the market to open on Thursday, as the market trend is already clear, and tomorrow will be a foregone conclusion!
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Peony believes that the trend of the stock market tomorrow will be a foregone conclusion, as the arrival of three phenomena has made the market trend clear, indicating that the A-share market still has a strong trend of volatility.
Phenomenon one, when the morning market fell back to the 3,200 point level, a bottom rebound trend was initiated, and the decline in the stock market during the afternoon session was reduced. Does this mean the decline is over?
Although the rebound today did not turn the Shanghai Composite Index from a decline to an increase, it shows that the stock market will rebound at every support level. Currently, it has broken through three support levels from 3,600 points, and the decline has not ended, but the risk of continued decline is decreasing.
More importantly, the current transaction volume is still above 2.5 trillion yuan. If this significant increase in the A-share market is the initial trend of the bull market, and 3,200 points do not provide support, the stock market will find support at 3,100 points and will not fall back to 3,000 points.The reason is that short-term adjustments are likely to cool down the confidence of retail investors, but many institutional investors who have not yet entered the market will actively participate in the market during the stock market adjustment, and the decline in A-shares will not continue to amplify.
Sign two, in this round of decline, there is a sector that is very active, what sector? Today is Wednesday, it is not the securities sector that is leading the decline in the two markets, and the sectors that are falling sharply are all in the hot topics, and will not become the main line of the sector that is falling sharply.
It can be understood that if the securities sector is still maintaining a strong trend of fluctuation, the stock market will only have a phased decline and will not be a continuous adjustment trend.
In particular, the short-term decline, Peony believes, is likely also the behavior of some leveraged funds accelerating buying and selling. Because of the sharp rise in just one day yesterday, more than 1070 billion yuan of leveraged funds have been bought, which is a rare historical data.
This may also be institutional investors, in order to deliberately fall today for the later market, to vacate some positions to allow institutional investors to reduce the cost of buying, but also to reduce the crazy behavior of speculative funds.
Sign three, technically, the Shanghai Composite Index has been a big bear line for two days, and both days of the big bear line have a lower shadow line at the close, revealing that every adjustment of the stock market, there are many funds buying. Technically, it is still a bullish horizontal trend after a big rise, not the end of the rising market.
The GEM was a longer shadow line yesterday, and today the GEM has appeared a line with upper and lower shadow lines, and the turnover has also shown a larger volume than the Shanghai Composite Index, which is proof of the GEM bulls and bears competing for direction, and a sign that the bulls are slightly better.
Because the GEM's fluctuation range is 20%, there may be more speculative funds trading in the GEM. It can be understood that whether it is the Shanghai Composite Index or the GEM, it will not start a large-scale adjustment because of today's decline, but the continuous rising market is likely to be postponed.
Peony estimates that there is no need to wait for the opening on Thursday, the market trend is obvious, tomorrow will maintain a strong fluctuation, the short line may still fall a bit, fall back to 3200 points and continue to rebound, but will not continue to fall sharply. The bulls tomorrow, because of today's decline, have already been mentally prepared, and will not let the stock market start a large-scale adjustment.Tomorrow is expected to be slightly better than today, with both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index closing with small阳线, and the three major stock indices still present small falls as great opportunities. When there is an accelerated decline, the stock market is also expected to reach a bottom and climb.
In summary, today's decline in A-shares may be due to institutional investors buying and some leveraged funds selling. In particular, many new investors, due to lack of investment experience, will follow the trend of buying and selling when the stock market rises and falls sharply, amplifying short-term fluctuations. The subsequent market trend still tends to be bullish.