During the holiday when the A-share market was closed, the Hong Kong stock market continued to surge to new highs, and the Chinese assets in the US stock market exploded. The A-share market missed too many good opportunities during the holiday. How will the market trend be after the holiday? Combining the news during the holiday, let's talk about the trend of the A-share market in October:

1. The most popular news during the National Day holiday is the ever-changing situation in the Middle East:

The most popular news during this holiday belongs to the Middle East situation. The global focus is mainly on this issue, which affects not only the emotions of the financial market but also everyone's concern about the subsequent development of the situation. If the tension escalates, it may trigger a series of panic concerns.

Looking at the Middle East situation, what is the main impact on the financial market?

On the one hand, the sentiment of risk aversion has warmed up, and risk-avoiding assets such as crude oil and gold have once surged. This has been reflected in the Hong Kong stock market. After the A-share market opens after the holiday, it is expected to catch up and make up for the rise;

On the other hand, the global risk-avoiding funds are transferred. The unpredictable changes in the Middle East situation have caused a certain panic in the global capital market, mainly affecting some high valuation markets. The impact on the stock market with relatively low valuation is not significant.

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Therefore, it is beneficial to the Hong Kong and A-share markets, especially during the trading time of the Hong Kong stock market, many foreign funds are scrambling for the chips of the Hong Kong stock market, and are accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets.

Overall, if the Middle East situation continues to heat up next week, everyone does not need to worry about affecting the current price of Chinese assets. It may lead to more risk-avoiding funds pouring into the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets.

2. The US non-farm data exceeded expectations, and the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has changed again? Will it have an impact on A-shares?

The US non-farm employment increased by 254,000 people in September, the largest increase since March 2024, with an estimate of 150,000 people, and the previous value was 142,000 people. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the non-farm new employment in July from 89,000 people to 144,000 people; the non-farm new employment in August was revised from 142,000 people to 159,000 people. After the revision, the total number of new jobs in July and August was 72,000 more than before the revision.Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of an interest rate cut, the first non-farm payroll data has been released. What are your thoughts after seeing the data?

Firstly, looking at the data, the non-farm payrolls for September significantly exceeded expectations, alleviating market concerns about a recession in the U.S. economy. After all, this is the month with the largest increase since March of this year.

Secondly, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the non-farm employment data for July and August, with both months' data being revised upwards.

This means that before the Federal Reserve's rate cut, the published data was generally lower than expected, which could be seen as paving the way for the rate cut. After the actual rate cut, the data began to improve and exceeded expectations.

Therefore, such non-farm data has become less impactful to the market. Data exceeding expectations indicates a strong economic performance, which implies that the pace of rate cuts may slow down, alleviating concerns about a recession and boosting sentiment in the U.S. stock market.

However, changes in the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are expected to have little impact on the global market, as the interest rate cut channel has already been opened. Even with revisions and data exceeding expectations, it is not enough to change the current financial market sentiment.

Especially for China's A-share market, internal influences are now much greater than external changes. The key to the continuation of the A-share bull market lies within China, not in the attitude of the Federal Reserve.

3. Who is shorting the A-share market? The result is clear:

When the A-share market plummeted, hedge funds made money, but when it soared, they began to lose money. Some private equity institutions even apologized to investors. What does this phenomenon indicate?

Some institutions are actually making money from market crashes, and when the market soars, they are the ones who get wiped out. Can this be understood as them continuously shorting the A-share market?Recently, the performance of neutral strategies has been released, with only one product showing a positive return among the data-tracked products, and the rest are basically losing money.

As the bull market comes, neutral strategies are actually losing money, and there are even rumors of a lot of margin calls and supplementary margin payments.

Some insiders say that some institutions do need to supplement margin, because these neutral strategies have lost a lot due to the sharp rise in stock index futures, and many products have urgent margin calls for short positions, which may trigger the risk of forced liquidation.

So, the sharp rise in the market at the end of September, the main contract of stock index futures hitting the upper limit, and the short institutions blowing up are actually real phenomena, which has truly realized the phenomenon of the main funds blowing up the short positions.

From the performance of quantitative private neutral strategies, many institutions still have a large number of short positions. If the market continues to soar, there may be more institutions blowing up. At this time, the main long positions may continue to do a lot of long positions, allowing short positions to continue to blow up, which is conducive to the further continuation of the long position sentiment.

4. The Hong Kong stock market has risen sharply, and the scale of A-shares unlocking in October is historically low, and A-shares will eventually reach a new high:

Let's talk about a few changes in market sentiment:

First, after the recent sharp rise in the Hong Kong stock market, the annual increase in performance has become the first in the world;

Second, global market funds are accelerating to bottom fish in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks;

Third, some big V believes that after the sharp rise, there will be a sharp fall, and some big V believes that after the festival, A-shares will open and close.Four is that during the holiday, people in scenic spots are concerned about the stock market, and everyone is eager to wait for the A-share market to open;

Five is that both those who are fully invested and those who have missed out are anxious, one wants to continue to participate in the market's surge, while the other wants to wait for opportunities to enter the market after the holiday;

Six is that the total value of shares that will be unlocked in October this year is 107.577 billion yuan, which is the smallest monthly value of unlocked shares for the year, and it is rare to drop to the level of tens of billions of yuan.

It can be seen that although the calls for a bull market in A-shares are getting higher and higher, there is still a lot of disagreement in the market. Many securities institutions have released views during the holiday that the probability of A-shares continuing to rise after the holiday is relatively large.

They believe that foreign capital, new account funds, and the revival of dormant account funds will become the driving force for A-shares to continue to rise after the holiday. However, many institutions and managers who have missed out and have a large short position believe that the possibility of a sharp drop after a surge is relatively large.

But let's analyze the actual situation:

First, the Hong Kong stock market has set a template for the A-share market, with both surges and sharp declines, and finally continued to rise and envelop, which is the characteristic of a bull market's rapid rise and sharp decline, but the sharp decline is for a better rise;

Second, if you consider the end of the bull market at 3300 points, this may be the idea of old leeks;

Third, within three days after the holiday, the probability of rising is relatively large. Even if there is a fund suppression in the market, there will probably be funds to take over. However, if it continues to rise for three consecutive days, and the index rises to about 3700 points, which is equivalent to a 1000-point increase in the first wave of index rise, there may be a strong shock and washing.

Therefore, it is almost certain that A-shares will continue to rise after the holiday, and the index will reach a new high within the year. However, after the surge, there will inevitably be some strong shock and washing, and that time will be the time to test the firm belief in the bull market.Due to the fact that many people have not yet recouped their investments or entered the market, it is anticipated that the selling pressure in the market immediately after the holiday will not be significant. However, after the market reaches a thousand points, it is important to be aware of potential major divergences in market capital.