A-Share Market: Unique Insights Amid Bearish Pressure

Firstly, today set a record for the fastest ever, with a transaction volume of over one trillion within the first 20 minutes of the opening;

Secondly, the transaction volume broke through two trillion this morning, with the full-day target being at least 3.6 trillion, and there is a high probability of a significant increase compared to last Friday's volume;

Lastly, almost all major indices opened at their upper limit today, with over five thousand stocks almost all rising, and the record of a thousand stocks hitting their upper limit was seen again;

These may only be the beginning and not the end, however, there were significant divergences during the trading session today. After the high opening, it was evident that short-selling funds began to exert pressure, and the main funds flowed out by over ten billion in the morning, which had not been seen before. What should we think about this? Let's share some opinions:

1. The market has gone crazy, and short-sellers started to exert pressure during the session, what do you think?

Although a test was conducted across the network yesterday, the systems of major brokerages experienced lag again today, indicating that the market trading is still quite congested, and funds are still rushing into the market.

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A lot of funds bought with one click at the opening, which is the main reason why the transaction volume quickly broke through one trillion, but everyone noticed that after the high opening, many stocks failed to seal the board, and stocks that went from heaven to earth also appeared, and the major indices quickly fell and dived, has the short term already peaked?

(1) In fact, the scene played out by the broad market index is very similar to the trend of the Hong Kong stock market on October 3rd. Do you remember that the Hong Kong stock market rose sharply on October 2nd, and then the next day the Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant drop, but fortunately it recovered somewhat, and then the Hang Seng Index continued to set new highs.

Today, the A-share market reached its peak at the opening, reaching a new high in the near term, with the broad market index once rising by a thousand points to above 3600 points, which is equivalent to the A-share market performing the two-day trend of the Hong Kong stock market in one day.

So compared to the performance of the Hong Kong stock market during the holiday, the trend of A-shares today is a normal wash in a bull market.The Hong Kong stock market took two days to verify the washout after a significant rise, while the A-share market completed both the surge and the washout in just one morning, indicating that the sentiment in the A-share market is more frenzied than in the Hong Kong market, and the speed of the washout is also faster.

(2) Of course, with such a high opening today, many funds chose to exit during the sharp rise, and short sellers also took the opportunity to sell off their positions, how should we view this phenomenon?

As mentioned earlier, today was an intraday washout, and it is highly likely that the market will still rise in the next two days. The driving force behind the rise is mainly due to the entry of new incremental funds from new accounts, which will continue to push the stock market higher.

What kind of funds took the opportunity to exit during today's sharp rise? It is quite obvious that it was more of the old investors, because some of the chips that were trapped in the market have begun to break even, and some have even started to make a profit, so there will be a need for funds to cash out.

For the market to continue to rise, there must be a process of new and old交替, and the purpose of the current bull market washout is to allow old investors to break even and attract new investors to enter. If everyone sticks to the old mindset of leaving once they break even, without the driving force of new investors, the index will not be able to rise in the end.

Therefore, from this perspective, I believe that in order to allow more new incremental funds to enter, the market index will eventually challenge the 3700 point level, rather than ending at today's level.

2. The market has seen a cooling news, how should we operate next? Don't be confused, the strategy is given to everyone:

(1) First of all, while everyone is focusing on the market situation, do not ignore the same news from last night and this morning:

Last night, relevant people mentioned that bank credit funds are strictly prohibited from entering the stock market in violation of regulations. Today, there is further news that financial regulatory authorities have provided guidance, which means that bank credit funds cannot enter the stock market in violation of regulations.

What does this mean?In fact, the purpose is to control the leverage in the stock market. When the market conditions improve, a lot of leveraged funds will flow into the market, which often leads to a rapid bull market. Referring to the bull market in 2015, it was because the financial leverage was too high. Eventually, after the leverage bubble burst, it took many years for the financial sector to deleverage, which ultimately led to the disappearance of wealth for a group of people and had a significant impact on the economy.

Controlling the illegal entry of credit funds into the stock market is a good thing. There will be such news in every bull market, but in the short term, it has a cooling effect on the market sentiment. This cooling is not about hoping for the market to end, but rather hoping that the market does not move too quickly. Therefore, this signal is to tell everyone that the crazy bull market may come to a pause, but the bull market has not ended. The subsequent market outbreak may be slower.

(2) What should new investors do when the market slows down?

Now that the market conditions have improved, everyone can see it. CITIC also gave some advice to beginners yesterday, which means to be steady and not to rush, to move more steadily.

Many people say that CITIC's words should be listened to in reverse, but this time I think some beginners should listen carefully.

Firstly, the index rebound has reached thousands of points up to today, and the next step up is close to the high point of 3700 points in 2021, which is a heavy pressure area for chips.

Secondly, up to today, many people have started to break even. Although there are still many people who have started to be trapped, there are also profit-taking positions in the market, which will lead to greater fluctuations and increased difficulty in speculation. Beginners need to do their homework.

Thirdly, many people say that they rushed in at the opening today, and their mentality was very unstable when the market fell during the day, asking what to do in a hurry?At this point, novice investors are afraid of chasing gains and cutting losses, losing money before they even start making a profit.

Therefore, it is crucial to understand the purpose of entering the market. Don't expect to double your investment in one go. The moment you open an account and enter the market, it means you might be in the stock market for a long time, and now might just be the beginning.

So, for new investors, it is still a good time to build a position, but don't buy everything at once. Pay attention to entering the market in batches, and when there are large fluctuations, it's an opportunity to make choices for yourself.

(3) For veteran investors and those who have made profits, how should they operate?

It's not wrong for veteran investors to cash out their profits and leave, because they have experienced being stuck before. Now that they have the opportunity to break even and make money, it's in line with the operation to secure the profits.

Everyone has noticed that recently many listed companies have started to release plans to reduce holdings. The reason is also that the prices have risen, and many major shareholders have also started to reduce their holdings. If listed executives reduce their holdings in this way, it's not wrong for investors to reduce their positions and make profits.

Now that the market has improved, new and old investors are alternating, with some leaving after making profits and others opening new accounts to enter. This is why trading liquidity will return to normal.

In general, this time can be considered the first loosening of the chips. In the short term, don't be a bull or a bear, just be a slippery one.

Those who have made profits should reduce their positions a bit, and any subsequent pullback is an opportunity to enter again, because the trend is optimistic;

New investors should enter in batches, because there are still people who haven't entered like you who are very anxious, so there is still an opportunity to push the trend up together;Stockholders who are caught in a bear market can simply hold on and stick to their investments. They have weathered much more difficult times in the past few years, so these minor market fluctuations should not be a cause for concern.