Friends, on the second day of the holiday, as the A-share market continues to be closed, there's a sudden feeling that time is moving very slowly! Today, the Hong Kong stock market opened, and its performance during the holiday may serve as a leading indicator for the A-share market after the holiday. So, let's discuss the main impacts on the A-share market after the holiday by combining today's Hong Kong stock trend and the news during the holiday:

1. First, let's talk about the two important news items so far during the holiday:

First, the brokerage firms continued to see a boom in account openings during the holiday:

During the National Day holiday, major brokerage firms worked overtime to open accounts for stock investors. A large number of new investors entered the market, fearing they would miss out on this wave of the market. According to institutional statistics:

The main funds in the market now come from the post-1985 and post-1990 generations, with the number of post-2000 investors starting to grow significantly.

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The main funds in the A-share market have undergone structural changes, and the market style will also change accordingly. From a certain perspective, although new investors may lack investment experience, their decisiveness in trading is actually stronger, and their tendency to form groups is more apparent, which may be more conducive to driving the market up.

2. Second, what does the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and the counter-trend outbreak of Chinese assets indicate?

Image source: Caixin Media

The biggest news is that the situation in the Middle East has heated up again, with Iran launching more than 200 missiles at Israel and stating that if Israel retaliates against Iran's legitimate defense, it will face a "devastating" strike.The escalating situation in the Middle East was both anticipated and exceeded expectations, as the region has been in a state of turmoil and instability for some time. What exceeded expectations this time was Iran's advance notice of launching ballistic missiles at Israel, followed by an immediate actual strike, indicating a serious turn of events.

The next steps in this scenario are less important, as the mere beginning has led the market to prepare for the worst-case scenario.

Affected by the rising tensions, the prices of crude oil futures and spot gold have all surged, while stock markets in Europe and America have fallen due to risk aversion. Do people think that A-shares will also be affected?

Looking at the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index in the US stock market, it soared by more than 5% last night, and the FTSE A50 Index also rose against the trend. Chinese concept stocks have also shown a collective rebound, indicating that capital is very confident in the prices of Chinese assets and is not at all worried about the impact of the escalating situation on the prices of Chinese assets.

Currently, European and American stock markets are at risk of a high-level correction. Under the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction cycle, capital may gradually flee the US stock market. The Middle East issue also affects the sentiment of capital. In contrast, A-shares will be the first choice for global risk-avoiding funds, which is the greatest advantage.

Why are funds not worried about A-shares being affected?

Before the outbreak of this bull market in A-shares, we launched an intercontinental missile, which was the path to opening the A-share bull market. It also showed the outside world that we are committed to developing our economy and do not want to be disturbed.

Third, foreign institutions collectively have a bullish view on A-shares, with BlackRock expected to return to the A-share market:

During the holiday, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and other famous investment institutions such as those in the UK have expressed their bullish views on A-shares, and Wall Street giants are also full of expectations for A-shares.

In particular, BlackRock Group is expected to return to the A-share market for investment. In the past, BlackRock suffered many losses in the A-share market, believing that there were always more shares to buy, and even with a strategy of arbitrage, they found that there were still a large number of shares being sold off.Now witnessing the bull market explosion in the A-share market, it's time to invest in A-shares again, as this time the A-share market has surged beyond expectations, and there may be more unexpected fiscal stimulus policies to be implemented in the future.

2. The Hong Kong stock market soared today, how will the A-share market perform after the holiday?

Seeing the significant rise in the Hong Kong stock market today, stock investors are eagerly looking forward to the early resumption of A-share trading, otherwise, they might miss out on this great market trend.

However, although the A-share market is closed during the holiday, it will not cool down the market sentiment. The longer the market sentiment is suppressed now, the higher the eagerness of funds to rush into the market after the holiday may be.

This is similar to how strong the desire for the A-share market to be closed was when it was falling, now the desire for the A-share market to open is just as strong when it is rising.

This eager psychology will drive funds to potentially enter a frenzy phase again after the holiday market opens. Don't think that the current surge means the market has lost its mind; in fact, the A-share market has not yet reached a state of frenzy, as there is still a large amount of capital that has not yet entered. I mainly want to point out a few things:

First, the 800 billion yuan of funds previously injected by the central bank includes 500 billion yuan of funds that securities, insurance, and fund institutions can only use for stock market investment through loans from the central bank, as well as 300 billion yuan of funds supported by banks for listed companies to repurchase and increase holdings, which have not yet officially entered the market;

Second, funds that missed out and new account funds will enter the market to grab shares after the holiday.

Before the holiday, many funds chose to cash out in advance and leave, fearing that the market would adjust after a significant rise after the holiday. Today, the Hong Kong stock market opened with a significant increase, and Hong Kong securities stocks collectively exploded, with the Hang Seng Index rising by more than 4% in the morning. This confirms that Chinese asset prices are still rising;

Therefore, those who left the market before the holiday, as well as those who missed out before the holiday, will not be able to resist rushing in after the holiday, and new account funds are also ready to bottom fish after the holiday.Thirdly, foreign institutions serve as a significant source of incremental capital that will gradually enter the market after the holiday.

At present, although the market has seen an increase in trading volume and has risen, the amount of capital used by foreign funds to bottom-fish is not very large. Many foreign institutions have merely reduced their purchases, and after the holiday, foreign capital will also gradually enter as incremental funds.

Overall, the current market sentiment still has a high promotional effect on the A-share market after the holiday. The market index is only at 3300 points now, and no bull market would end at this level.

The most important thing now is that global risk-avoiding funds are expected to flow into the A-share market collectively, which will make the A-share market more active.

When the sentiment of a bull market arises, it is basically unstoppable. Any technical analysis will be ineffective, and everyone will only look at the trading volume and sentiment.

Looking forward to the A-share market delivering a more exciting performance after the holiday.