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The ChiNext board saw a record single-day increase and turnover; the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets set a historical record; the trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets set a historical record; today's 20-minute break of one trillion marks the fastest historical record.
In addition to these, there are two more records:
First, the net outflow of domestic main funds of over two hundred billion today should be the highest historical record;
Second, someone stopped on the emergency lane to check stocks while driving, which should also be a historical first.
This also reflects that the current attention to the A-share market is indeed the highest. Before the stock market rose, many people had no confidence in the real estate market, economy, and consumption investment. After the stock market rose, the real estate sales warmed up, consumption significantly increased, and confidence in the future was also established. This is the biggest change.
However, behind the frenzy, today's market performance also showed the first sign of cooling down. Although the major indices still rose sharply today, many stocks that opened at the end of the day were sealed again, and the number of stocks with a rise of more than 10 points in both markets reached more than two thousand.
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But today's market shock is enough to sober up many people. In the short term, has the A-share market really reached its peak? A large amount of reduction information appeared after the market, what impact will it have on the stock market? Let's talk about your own views:
1. After the market, a large amount of reduction news, three cooling signals in one day, what does it mean?
(1) First, the first cooling signal is that there are a large number of reduction announcements after the market:
Not long after the market started, a large number of listed companies issued reduction announcements. Recently, hundreds of companies have issued reduction information. The first thing everyone needs to do is to stay away from these companies.Companies that are eager to reduce their holdings as soon as their stock prices rise a bit are not considered good companies. This is because the first thing it reflects is that the executives of the listed companies have little confidence in the future of their stock prices. Why should retail investors support them?
Today, after the market closed, a large number of listed companies have once again issued concentrated reduction announcements. As of around 8 o'clock tonight, at least 30 companies have issued reduction plans, which is quite rare in the past, and there may be more in the future.
The image is from the Internet.
When major shareholders reduce their holdings in a concentrated manner, if it is in a relatively weak market, the regulatory authorities will generally have some guidance, mainly to protect the market.
Now, after the market has risen sharply, the concentrated release of reduction information has not received any response or concern from all parties, which is more like a tacit approval behavior after a sharp rise. Therefore, this is also a signal to cool down the market.
Secondly, some securities companies have issued a notice prohibiting employees from violating regulations to speculate in stocks.
It is an industry-wide ban for securities practitioners to speculate in stocks, but in reality, many practitioners are still violating regulations to speculate in stocks, which is also a consensus in the industry.
Normally, everyone knows such regulations, but when they are emphasized again now, the meaning may be different. Under what circumstances would people take risks to speculate in stocks?
Naturally, it is during a bull market or when there is a big trend. Some people take the risk of violating industry regulations to speculate in stocks, which just shows that the market is overheated. At this time, issuing such a prohibition notice is also a signal to cool down.(3) Finally, there is news that regulatory guidance has been received, strictly prohibiting non-compliant funds from flowing into the stock market.
The inflow of credit funds into the stock market in violation of regulations is inherently prohibited. However, this morning, there was a sudden news that regulatory guidance was issued to strictly prohibit the inflow of credit funds into the stock market in violation of regulations. Generally, there are two possibilities when such news emerges:
First, it is indeed true that these funds have already flowed into the stock market (recently, I have indeed seen many people around me using various consumer loans to speculate in stocks).
Second, the news is released during the trading session, with the purpose of suppressing market sentiment and sending a strong regulatory signal to prevent the market from going crazy with speculation.
Therefore, it is highly likely that both of these situations are actually present. This reminds me of the recent explanations by relevant personnel from the central bank, stating "The central bank has not expanded its balance sheet, and the central bank will not buy stocks," which can also be seen as cooling down the market.
From the above three phenomena, it is indeed intended to cool down in the short term, and the rebound of market sentiment this afternoon is very strange. Because the market experienced too much emotional fluctuation in the morning, to avoid unnecessary panic in the market, the bulls obviously took over the selling pressure in the afternoon, showing a determination to care for market sentiment. What does this mean?
From today's emotional fluctuations, it can be seen that the authorities do not want the market to go crazy (the experience of financial deleveraging in 2015 is still vivid, and they do not want to repeat the same mistakes), but they also do not want the bull market to end so quickly. What they want is a long-term slow bull market.
If it goes crazy like today, then actively suppress it, but considering that there are still many new investors who have not entered the market, and many old investors want to run when they see gains, the market needs the continuous provision of incremental funds through the replacement of old and new investors, so the market will still be kept stable to avoid big ups and downs.
Such active control of market temperature can be understood and supported by everyone, so I think everyone does not need to deliberately look bearish because of market fluctuations.
Although many people are guessing the top now, in fact, both the volume and sentiment are still relatively hot now, and guessing the top solely based on technical analysis is not convincing.2. Has the short-term A-share market really reached its peak? Share your own views:
Some may argue that today's market opened high and closed low, not meeting expectations, but it cannot be said that today's market performance was poor.
If one had chased in at the highest point in the early morning session, the short-term losses are not too significant, and it's even possible that they won't be stuck for too long;
If one had bottom-fished earlier, then it's even less appropriate to say the market has peaked, because today's trading volume still maintained an increase with over five thousand stocks going up, and thousands of them with gains of more than ten percentage points, which is a rare occurrence in the past few years;
The most critical point is that there were so many new accounts opened during the holiday, and they can only really start buying stocks on October 9th. If the market has truly peaked, what will happen to the funds from these new accounts? Wouldn't that mean all the previous groundwork was in vain?
Think from another perspective, for funds that have not yet entered the market, they might hope for the market to peak because a peak would lead to a correction, and a correction would provide new opportunities for entry.
Today, we saw many individual stocks with transactions exceeding ten billion yuan, mostly led by heavyweights in their respective industries, which are generally favored by institutions and foreign capital, so today was still dominated by institutions buying on the dip.
Tomorrow, with a new batch of incremental funds entering the market, it may once again welcome a rebound and repair.
Judging from the post-market performance of the FTSE A50 index today, which fell by more than ten points during the day, it rebounded by more than two points tonight, implying that A-shares may again focus on rebounding tomorrow.
However, the likelihood of the index soaring by several points every day, as it has recently, is not high. After the market has just experienced a rapid rise, what follows will be a slower increase.The sectors that continue to maintain strength on the plate are the cyclical securities and finance, followed by growth stocks led by technology. In addition to these two main lines, the rest of the sectors will enter into rotation.
So, my point of view is very clear:
(1) The bull market has not ended, and it has started to enter the slow bull market from the fast bull market;
(2) Today is a turning point, but it is not a high point. Today may be the beginning of the market truly entering a healthy bull market;
(3) Finance and technology are the main lines, and other sectors are mainly rotating now. Later, we need to pay attention to the opportunities of the third quarter report and technology branches;
(4) Do not borrow money to speculate in stocks, do not exceed your ability to add leverage, do not gamble with an empty or full position, and do not seek paper wealth.