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The market has closed, and today is the morning of October 9th in the Chinese stock market. The A-shares opened low and continued to decline throughout the day, with a transaction volume of 2 trillion yuan and a drop of over 5%. There are three main reasons for this, and what will happen next? Has the six-day bull market come to an end? Please watch carefully and patiently, and give a thumbs up to the heartfelt words shared daily.
Firstly: Today, the A-shares showed a low opening and continued to decline, approaching a transaction volume of 2 trillion yuan in half a day, with a plunge of over 5.3%. More than 5,000 individual stocks across both markets turned green, with over 176 stocks hitting the limit down, while only over 300 stocks were up, and only 42 stocks hit the limit up. The main force funds net sold 172.8 billion yuan. It was still a bull market yesterday, but today's atmosphere seems to be a bit of a cold shower.
Secondly: So, the three main reasons for the A-shares' low opening and decline of over 5% in half a day today are as follows. The overall index was below expectations, but the trend of the sectors was basically in line with my expectations.
The first reason, as we discussed during the National Day holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rose by more than 10%, while the A-shares were on holiday, which is a bit troublesome due to the frequent holidays. So, we talked about the A-shares, which would also attack 3670, and the first wave of the rise was 34%. The market opened at this level yesterday, so some sectors showed profit-taking yesterday. As some people said, "the opening is the closing," meaning that the opening is the time to cash out.
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The second reason, last night we clearly saw that I check the announcements of listed companies every day. Last night, more than 30 companies announced plans to reduce holdings. The overall market rose by 1000 points in just six days, and some listed companies were simply overjoyed. Today, some have appeared with "clearing-style reduction" and "cash-out reappears in the market." So, these have a bearing pressure on the market.
The third reason, yesterday the Hong Kong stock market continued to dive at the end of the day, with a drop of over 5%. Today, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index continued to惯性下探 and fell by more than 1% at one point. The Hong Kong stock market has had two consecutive days of short-term capital profit-taking and adjustment, which also led to the A-shares' low opening and decline of over 5% today. However, we should pay attention to the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index, which have already retraced to the golden section support of 0.618 today, so the short-term basically has also回调到位.
Thirdly: Today's A-share market basically shows more declines than rises, most of the sectors basically dive and kill, many sectors basically show a decline of over 5%, and even limit down, and today's A-share market only has the securities and semiconductors that continued to be strong yesterday.
1. Today, the securities sector was indeed able to continue to set new highs, with two leading stocks, Orient Wealth and CITIC Securities, setting historical highs. Guoxin Securities and Tianfeng Securities still closed at the limit up, and China Merchants Securities rose by more than 7%. This means that today's securities sector was indeed able to continue to rise inertial, but it will basically come to an end.
2. Today, the semiconductor sector continued to rise sharply. During the National Day holiday, SMIC in the Hong Kong stock market rose by more than 60%. So, during the National Day holiday, I reminded investors who missed out that they could only focus on semiconductors. As expected, there was an opportunity yesterday, and today it continued to set new highs in the rebound. Today, the semiconductor sector once rose by more than 6%, and those who can close at the limit up tomorrow will continue to rise inertial, and the same will appear weak and strong differentiation.
Fourthly: So, the question arises, what will happen to the A-shares next? Has the six-day bull market come to an end?Firstly, today's A-share market opened low and continued to decline, which was naturally influenced by the fact that over 30 listed companies announced share reductions last night. Additionally, Chinese concept stocks fell by more than 6% last night, with securities stocks among Chinese concept stocks also experiencing a significant drop. Consequently, the ChiNext Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and CSI 1000 all fell by more than 6% today.
Secondly, the STAR 50 Index even rose by more than 1% at one point today, driven by the semiconductor sector's increase of over 6%, which propelled the STAR 50 Index higher. Meanwhile, the ChiNext Index also made an upward surge, indicating that some of the ChiNext and semiconductor stocks were still able to reach new highs today. Of course, this is only true for some of the stronger players who can continue their strong performance.
Furthermore, the A-share market has risen by 1000 points in 10 days since 2689, and since September 24th, when all indices began to reverse and rise, they have surged for exactly 6 days. In these 6 days, the A-share market has risen to 3674, leading some investors to jokingly refer to it as a "6-day bull market." Some strong stocks, like those in the ChiNext sector, have completed a year's worth of work in just 7 days. This shows the craziness of the A-share market.
From a technical perspective, the A-share market today retraced to above the 5-day moving average. After 10 consecutive days of rising, the market retraced today, which is the primary adjustment. We all know that after a continuous rise, the primary adjustment is an opportunity for those who missed out to get on board. At the same time, we repeatedly emphasized before the holiday that in a bull market, there are long bearish days. Today's long bearish day is an opportunity for the capital that missed out during the National Day holiday to get on board. There will be a lower shadow line that forms a small bearish candlestick, and tomorrow there will be a counterattack.
Lastly, since the A-share market rebounded from 2689, the 3670 I mentioned during the National Day holiday is the first phase of the bull market. Securities and semiconductors continued to reach new rebound highs as expected today. Yesterday, I said that for sectors like real estate, which I mentioned could be taken profit in the short term, of course, a bull market cannot be only 6 days long. Therefore, I said that by the end of this year, there is still hope to reach 3821. What we want is a slow bull market, not a crazy one.