A-Share Crash: Calm Amidst Despair, Is the Bull Market Over? Lessons for Newbies

Friends, looking at today's market sentiment, many people might be on the verge of a breakdown, with some wailing sounds emerging. Is everyone unable to bear it anymore?

When the market was rising, it rose to a point where some people were afraid to enter, hoping for a pullback and a decline. Now that the pullback has come and the market has dropped rapidly, suddenly there is doubt about the bull market, and people are hesitant to enter again.

In a bull market, sharp rises and falls are very common in the market. It is understandable for novice stock investors who have not experienced a bull and bear cycle. For veteran stock investors, there is really no need to be so surprised by the sharp rises and falls in a bull market.

Yesterday, at the very beginning of the market's high opening, I already told everyone "the opening is the peak," urging everyone to stay calm. The market will then transition from a fast bull market to a slow bull market.

Since the authorities do not want a crazy bull market, the adjustment after a significant rise is actually to prolong the cycle of the bull market, which is not difficult to understand.

Many people, seeing today's sharp decline, completely ignore the rapid rise of the previous few days. They seem to require a daily significant increase, unable to see any decline. Seeing a decline makes them feel like it's the end of the world. This kind of mentality is essentially an attitude of coming to the market to pick up money, which is not sustainable in this market.

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We can imagine:

Who are the ones who made money in this rapid rise?

Firstly, those who actively bought into the dips during the previous decline. They tried to bottom-fish and buy into the dips before the market had a significant rise, and then they encountered the explosion of the bull market.

Secondly, those who were previously trapped and then bought more as the market fell, adding to their positions at the bottom to lower their costs, and ultimately making a quick recovery and profit in the bull market.Thirdly, there are those who wait for opportunities, entering the market at the first sign of a rebound, buying after the first big bullish candle, and then, with exceptional courage, they are prepared to bear the risks and hold on to the fast-rising bull market players.

On the other hand, there are those who, after seeing the market surge, confirm the trend reversal, and hesitate to enter the market, with some even opening accounts later on. These newcomers want to make a big profit right away.

It's the kind of mentality where if they buy today and it doesn't rise, and if it falls and they lose money tomorrow, they think it's a bear market. In fact, such a mindset is better off not coming to the stock market at all, because it is inherently a gamble on speculation, thinking about making a quick fortune. The A-share market, in particular, often teaches such a mentality a lesson.

I was able to firmly believe in a market rise at 2700 points, firmly not to cut losses, and similarly, I will not change my view under today's pullback, because from the beginning, my view of the market was to build a bottom and slowly move out of the trend.

Now, suddenly, there are policies that exceed expectations, leading to a fast bull market, which is itself beyond expectations and can be considered a reward from the market. Now it's just returning to the rhythm of a slow bull market, so there's no disappointment, but rather a stronger conviction in my own views.

Of course, many people haven't experienced so much, so their emotions fluctuate greatly. So, is the bull market over now? Let's talk about my own views:

1. The market has plummeted, it's quiet, does the bull market still exist?

A bull market does not mean it will keep rising; a bull market will also have pullbacks. If we look at today's trading volume, today is significantly lower than yesterday. When the market experiences a pullback with reduced volume, does it mean that the market is still in a normal rhythm?

This morning's volume was nearly 60 billion less than yesterday's, indicating that most of the funds have calmed down, and it also shows that the cooling measures from above have had a noticeable short-term effect.

If the market continues to rise crazily like a mad bull, the eventual fall could be even more severe. Although everyone hopes for an increase, as the market rises, more and more people are adding leverage, borrowing money everywhere to enter the stock market to speculate. In the end, won't it have to return to normal?Controlling risks in a timely manner at the early stage of a leveraged play, and then seeing a slow bull market in the later stage, is when one earns stable money. In the early stage, people earn money from emotional speculation, which inherently does not stay in the market for long. Emotional capital comes and goes quickly, and this point needs to be understood.

Although individual stocks fell quite a bit today, it can also be considered a general decline. Compared to the previous continuous surge of more than five thousand stocks, many individual stocks only represent a true low-absorption opportunity after pulling back.

Following the sharp rise as seen in the past few days, people would find that even with positions and funds in hand, they do not know what to buy, because many individual stocks have been pulled up straight from the bottom, making it difficult to know how to start.

Therefore, my view is very clear:

First, the bull market has not ended; today's sharp drop is a normal correction within a bull market.

Second, the transition from a fast bull to a slow bull will gradually eliminate those who cannot adapt.

Third, emotional capital will gradually exit in the short term and be washed out, leaving behind what may be the trend-following capital that fits the slow bull market.

2. The first lesson for beginners is to learn to stay calm. Will the market recover in the afternoon?

Today is the first trading day for newly opened accounts, and some may wonder if they dare to enter and buy with this kind of market trend?

In fact, the turnover in both markets continued to approach two trillion this morning, so the current volume is still indicative of a bull market compared to a month ago.Compared to yesterday, today might not be as crazy, but the current market calmness is deliberately intended to make everyone calm down.

For many novice stock investors, if they don't learn how to stay calm, they might end up paying back the money they've earned, and even more.

From the current perspective, let's not say that the market trend has ended so quickly; the current pullback could also be to provide everyone with a lower and safer entry point, right?

After the first big surge, some veteran investors who have recouped their losses and some speculative funds have left the market, but there are still many who missed out and novices who haven't entered yet. Now that the market has pulled back, they can slowly accumulate at lower levels, and there will still be opportunities later on.

So, the market in these two days is more about teaching everyone to learn calmness, to learn to control emotions, and then to make money in the market.

Regarding the afternoon market, I have a few opinions:

First, if the market opens high in the morning and then dumps after the rise, this trend is obviously to raise the price for new investors to take over, and there is no intention of having a subsequent trend.

However, this morning it was clear that the market opened low and then dumped first, keeping novices calm, and more importantly, providing a better entry opportunity for novices. This indicates that this adjustment does not intend to end directly.

Second, after washing out a wave of emotional funds in the morning, it is expected that the market will slowly rise in the afternoon, and it is highly likely that the market will rebound from the bottom for the whole day. The gap left by the gap-up opening yesterday has been filled, and the short-term 5-day moving average at 3240 points also has support.

When the pullback does not break through the 5-day moving average, then the pullback is actually an opportunity to buy.Thirdly, let me add one more point: when the fast bull market ends and enters the slow bull cycle, what is tested is everyone's cognition, patience, and emotional value.

There are always people who want to make quick money, and there are always those who prefer stability. When your emotions and cognition do not match the market fluctuations, there will always be a chaotic rhythm.