A-Share Market: End of Rally or Surprise Rebound in Afternoon?

The A-share market is too hot, with retail investors pouring in every day, and today is no exception. The main force is very considerate to the new retail investors who are eager to enter the market. They have provided a place and given these retail investors who are anxious to make a fortune a full incubation period in the entry process. Can the funds of these millions of retail investors who are eager and anxious to get rich push the A-share market up again? Below are several opinions on the trend of A-shares in the afternoon.

First, we should view today's adjustment of A-shares with caution and calmness. First, let's look at the trend of the A50 futures and the Hang Seng Index, which are closely linked with A-shares. Both of these indices are falling today, and compared with yesterday's decline, today's decline is relatively small. The Hang Seng Index fell by about 1%, and the A50 futures fell by more than 2%. Yesterday, these two indices fell by 8% and 7% respectively. Everyone should pay attention that this is a long black line that appears at a relatively high position. I won't say any terms like "cutting off the head", and intuitively, it's not very auspicious. Therefore, everyone should pay attention to the time when these two indices stop falling in the short term.

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Second, let's look at the overall trend of A-shares. Under the fervent pursuit of everyone, A-shares have actually fallen by more than 10% without realizing it, which is basically consistent with my judgment in the article on October 4th. Today, when the A-share market hit its lowest point, it was 3249 points, and yesterday's highest point was 3674 points. Today, the A-share market fell by more than 5%, the GEM fell by more than 8%, and the average stock price index of A-shares also fell by more than 7%. In the morning, more than 5,000 stocks in both markets fell.

As of 11 a.m., on the basis of a net outflow of 210 billion yuan by A-share main funds yesterday, there was another large net outflow of 148.9 billion yuan. Except for the PLC concept, which had a net inflow of 70 million yuan, all others had a net outflow. In the whole morning, the main funds had a net outflow of 172.8 billion yuan.

The concept of financing and securities lending once again had a large net outflow of 123.7 billion yuan today, and the number of sectors with a net outflow of more than 50 billion yuan reached 19. The net outflow was mainly concentrated in the Shenzhen market. In the morning, the main funds in the Shenzhen market had a net outflow of 95.2 billion yuan, the Shenzhen Stock Connect had a net outflow of 70.7 billion yuan, and the GEM comprehensive index had a net outflow of 51.4 billion yuan.Institutional and fund heavy investments also saw a significant net outflow, amounting to 37.5 billion yuan and 37.2 billion yuan respectively. State-owned enterprise reforms, shares held by the Central Huijin Investment Ltd., Huawei concepts, and artificial intelligence experienced net outflows exceeding 30 billion yuan.

Thirdly, from the analysis and trading data above, it is evident that A-shares are facing a rather realistic pressure for adjustment.

As I mentioned in yesterday's article, the adjustment level today is roughly around 3300 points, because all technical indicators of the three major A-share indices have become blunted, indicating a severely overheated market. In my article on October 6th, I stated that an overheated market would trigger intervention, primarily based on the current domestic and international economic situation. Our policy is for stability, not overheating.

We must face this adjustment squarely. After a surge comes a plunge, and after frenzy, it is always retail investors who end up paying the bill. This is a rule determined by human nature, not a question of whether the market is good or not.

Since the adjustment has just begun, it is currently impossible to accurately predict the specific level of the adjustment. Overall, it should be above 3000 points where the market will likely stop falling. What I would like to remind everyone is that after the adjustment ends, A-shares will have another surge, but it will not pass 3400 points and will enter a high-level consolidation phase. Small and medium-cap stocks will enter a prolonged phase of consolidation and decline.

Secondly, regarding the trend of A-shares in the afternoon, I have several views:

Firstly, the most important thing for A-shares now is adjustment. Only through adequate adjustment can the market move more healthily.

This adjustment is also a correction to the rapid and significant upward trend of the previous period. Under the current circumstances, such a surge is unsustainable. The purpose of this short-lived surge is to awaken funds outside the market to enter and take over, alleviating or resolving the embarrassing situation since the first half of the year where only major forces were playing solo. This has achieved a win-win situation, with major forces making a significant exit and retail investors making a significant entry. The major forces have made money, and retail investors have bought stocks, allowing them to dream of getting rich.

This adjustment is to satisfy the urgent mentality of these retail investors eager to enter the market, giving them a low position to buy and take away. Everyone gets what they want, isn't that delightful?Therefore, in dealing with this adjustment, everyone must be objective and rational, not too pessimistic, nor overly optimistic, because the 3674 point is most likely the high point of this year. Is it the high point of May at 3174 points, exactly 500 points apart? Surprising or not, unexpected or not? It's all part of the game.

Secondly, everyone should pay attention to the trend of the securities sector. Today, after two consecutive daily limit-ups, the securities sector experienced a decline, falling by 2.07%, but this is far from enough. Considering its previous gains, the sector still has a short-term decline space of about 10%. At the very least, it needs to fill two gap-up gaps. This is the key to the A-share market's future. If the main force does not support the securities sector, a deep correction of the overall market is inevitable.

Thirdly, the issue of trading volume should be highly concerned. This morning, the trading volume of A-shares began to shrink significantly. Without any surprises, the shrinkage will be even more noticeable in the afternoon. At this time, we should be alert that yesterday was a day of extremely high volume and price, and a top-heavy bottom-light pattern will be formed, which means that it will be very difficult to surpass yesterday's trading volume in the future.

In the afternoon, the main force will revolve around the 3300 point mark to create fluctuations and continuously influence the trend of A-shares through the A50 futures index. The market will continue to fluctuate, inviting retail investors who have opened accounts to enter. The service provided by the main force is now five-star, and everyone should be cautious and calm. Those who scold me, today's trend will tell you what A-shares are. For cautious fans, this is a great opportunity to make a big profit.